What’s going on here?
China's trade data for December defied expectations, with export growth hitting 10.7% year-over-year and a monthly rise of 3%. This recovery follows November's slowdown, bolstered by increased exports to the US and ASEAN countries.
Chinese exports have continued their steady rise. Source: abrdn, Refinitiv.
What does this mean?
The latest figures signal a significant rebound in China's trade activities. Export competitiveness has been enhanced by a notable 14.5% dip in the export price index, boosting sales to both the US and ASEAN regions. This uptick in trade is timely, as it aligns with the expected robust economic growth figures for the last quarter of 2024. Strategically, the increased exports to the US may be an anticipatory move against prospective tariffs, while strong ASEAN demand underscores broad-based market recovery.
Why should I care?
For markets: What China's trade data tells us.
China's robust export performance is poised to positively influence global markets by enhancing economic stability and growth predictions for 2025. However, its substantial trade surplus may trigger heightened trade tensions with the US, potentially impacting future trade negotiations and tariffs.
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Carl Hazeley
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